Damages such as Kyrgyzstan reliance on Russia… The amount of overseas remittances for migrant workers will be reduced by 30%
Rashim Sharifov, who is raising three children outside Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan in Central Asia, is sleeping through the news of the rapidly changing exchange rate. Having been feeding his family as a Russian migrant worker, he has been saving 26,500 rubles in addition to his living expenses, aiming to buy an apartment in downtown Dushanbe. The amount is about 40,000 somni in local currency. However, after Russias invasion of Ukraine last month, the real value of the savings plummeted to 26,300 dollars, leaving only apartments available. Eurasianet, a media specialized in Eurasia, introduced such a case and said, “Every spring is a time when a large number of Tajikistans go to Russia to work, but flights are drastically reduced due to the Ukraine crisis.”
The ripple effect of the international communitys economic sanctions against Russia is heading toward Russias neighboring countries. The World Bank recently predicted that the former Soviet bloc countries, where the economy of their workers who went to work in Russia is highly dependent, will be particularly hard hit. In the case of Kyrgyzstan, overseas remittance accounts for 30% of gross domestic product, and 83% of overseas remittances come from Russia. However, due to the Ukraine crisis this year, the amount of overseas remittances is predicted to decrease by 33% compared to last year. Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Armenia, which are in a similar situation, also took an emergency as their overseas remittance amount was expected to drop sharply due to the shock from Ukraine. The World Bank predicted, “As remittances are disrupted in the aftermath of the exclusion of international interbank communication networks, inconveniences such as finding unofficial remittance routes are likely to follow, and this will lead to effects such as a decrease in employment and income in the future.” .
As Russia and Ukraine, the worlds largest grain producers, become warring parties, neighboring countries that have imported ingredients from these countries are also being hit directly or indirectly. Local media recently reported that a hoarding is taking place in Turkey amid growing concerns that sunflower seed oil will run out. Turkey imports 900,000 tons of sunflower oil per year, of which 65% is from Ukraine and Russia. As public sentiment began to sway as rumors spread that sunflower oil stocks would be exhausted or prices would skyrocket, the police launched an investigation into the social media account that spread the news. Hungary decided to ban exports of all grains after grain prices soared in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis. Bulgaria has also announced that it will increase its government stockpiles to stabilize grain prices.
It is predicted that the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine will also hit third world countries such as Asia and Africa. In particular, it is analyzed that there are many countries that are highly dependent on imports from Russia and Ukraine, which are facing special situations such as large populations, economic sanctions, and civil war, which can increase political turmoil and hardship of the people.