Concerns over Q1 earnings are growing as Robloxs growth slowdown is clearly evident in its February data.
On the 15th, on the New York Stock Exchange, Roblox closed at $37.87, up 3.24% from the previous trading day. It is believed that the buying backlash was introduced when it fell to $36.33 the previous day and recorded a new 52-week low.
Most of the February indicators published by Roblox recorded negative growth compared to the previous month. The number of users exceeded expectations, but the amount of payments fell short of expectations. However, it is a positive evaluation that the usage time is similar to that in December amid user growth.
Lee Young-jin, a researcher at Samsung Securities, analyzed that Februarys indicators need to consider fewer days and weekends compared to January.
The number of Roblox users in February was 55.1 million, up 28% from the same period of the previous year and 1% from the previous month. In January, it recorded an increase of 32% compared to the same period of the previous year.
Total revenue per user was between $3.68 and $3.74, down 24.5% from the same period last year and 8% from the previous month. The number of hours used was 3.8 billion hours, an increase of 21% compared to the same period of the previous year, but a decrease of 10% compared to the previous month. Net sales amounted to USD 2.03-206 billion, down 3% YoY and 8% MoM.
As a consensus for the first quarter, Roblox presented total sales of $677 million, DAU of 54.1 million, hours of use of 1.23 billion hours, and net sales of $552 million.
According to the researcher, for the first quarter results in line with the consensus, a record of $251 million in sales, 52.4 million DAU, and 4.3 billion hours of usage time in March is necessary for first quarter results. It was assessed that adjustments were possible.
On the other hand, he explained that it is necessary to take a long-term approach, saying that even considering the positive impact of the spring break period and number of days in March, the expected hours of use and total sales will be slightly lowered.
As Roblox is the representative platform of Metaverse, it was evaluated that there is still room for mid- to long-term valuation expansion using flexibility.
The researcher added that it is necessary to pay attention to continuous partnerships and new business expansion based on network effects, but added that a long-term approach is needed in a situation where the overall macro flow is unfavorable to growth stocks, which are considered risky assets.
