
[AFP = Yonhap News] International oil prices are falling despite the ongoing war in Ukraine. Until last week, the forecast was for $200 a barrel, but now the international oil price has fallen below $100. On the 15th (local time) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), West Texas Intermediate (WTI) April futures closed at $96.44 per barrel, down $6.57 (6.4%) from the battlefield. Brent crude for May on the London ICE Futures Exchange also closed at $99.91 a barrel. WTI and Brent both closed below $100. WTI hit $123.70 a barrel on the 8th. It was the highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008. However, in just eight days, WTI plunged 22.0%. This is the first time since March that WTI fell below $100 based on the closing price. Until last week, the prospect that the sharp rise in international oil prices would continue was overwhelming. When US President Joe Biden announced a ban on oil and gas imports from Russia, the worlds second-largest exporter of crude oil, pessimism over oil prices rose further. The Bank of America (BoA) forecast was the highest at $200 per barrel, followed by Goldman Sachs at $175 and JP Morgan at $185. Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Aleksandr Novak warned on the 7th that the price of oil could rise by more than $300 per barrel if Russias oil embargo is implemented on the 7th. Conversely, international oil prices peaked at $120-130 and plummeted by more than 20% within a week. As Russias invasion of Ukraine, which led to a surge in international oil prices, has passed for three weeks, the possibility of a war without a winner is increasing, which is interpreted as lowering oil prices. As the war prolongs, it is more likely that both sides will find a compromise. Last night, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the office of the Ukrainian negotiator, tweeted that the fourth round of negotiations would continue tomorrow (16th) and expressed optimism that there are fundamental contradictions, but there is certainly room for compromise. The fact that more cities are being blocked due to the spread of Omicron mutation in China is also considered a factor driving down oil prices. The city of Shenzhen, known as Chinas Silicon Valley, has been shut down due to the spread of the corona virus. Shenzhen is one of the four largest cities in China along with Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Chinas industrial production is being disrupted in earnest, with Toyotas Changchun plant and Foxconns Shenzhen plant shutting down one after another. As a result, concerns over whether crude oil consumption will decrease are being reflected in oil prices. The Iran nuclear deal is also emerging as a major variable in oil prices. The United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany have been negotiating with Iran to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement in Vienna since April last year. Negotiations were evaluated as having crossed the ridge of Section 9. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have stalled recently. However, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, it is expected to fuel the decline in oil prices as Iran will be able to resume oil exports. According to the IBK Investment & Securities Research Center, the risk asset most affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war is crude oil price, and the crude oil futures price can be interpreted as reflecting the war risk. He said that the market is predicting a downward stabilization of crude oil prices in the future.